from the hip

New York Times just reported the oil prices has dropped to under 50 dollars a barrel for the first time in 22 months. NYT writes:

The drop in prices comes as stock and bond markets fell because of fears about the health of the financial system, and a flurry of new indicators showed how badly the economy was faring.

Just as a booming global economy had steadily driven up commodity prices for six years, the current meltdown means the world needs less oil, and is sharply driving down prices.

It is a stunning — and sudden — reversal that has taken aback many experts. Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.04 to $50.58 a barrel in morning trading. At one point, crude oil was down $3.71, to $49.91 a barrel. Oil futures have lost more than two-thirds of their value after settling at a peak of about $145 a barrel in July.

Some analysts predict oil could fall to $30 to 40 a barrel as the world economy worsens.

Also, the dollar is for the moment strengthening in international markets.
Another sign of the strength of the oncoming depression?

See also: Times: Shares fall as US jobless adds another 542,000

While the economic downswing is still making itself felt in the US, it is now also hitting several European countries hard. And inflation is soaring, and hit a record high of 4.1 percent last month.

“There’s no obvious trigger for strong economic growth in Europe until the end of 2009,” says David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. “Massive [financial] imbalances need to be worked out, and the corporate sectors in many countries remain in a substantial deficit.”

Consumer confidence for the euro area has fallen to negative 29.7, the lowest it has been since 1993. And the news about the plunge in factory orders in Germany, led to the following comment, reported in the New York Times:

“It now looks likely that the euro zone will be the first major economy to fall into recession,” Jonathan Loynes, the chief European economist for Capital Economics, wrote after the report of sagging orders in Germany.

Great Britain

Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s second-largest bank, recently posted its first loss in 40 years after taking a £5.9bn hit from the credit crunch. And Barclays, the third-biggest bank, took a fresh £2.8bn write-down. Also, the price of houses are dropping rapidly, according to Guardian

the Halifax said house prices last month were 11% down on a year earlier - the first double-digit decline since its monthly healthcheck of the market was first published 25 years ago.

House prices back to 2006 and still falling, says Times. And new housing orders are down 33%. And, of course, home repossessions surge.

Business groups and City analysts warned that deep and rapid cuts in the cost of borrowing would be needed next year to pull Britain out of its first recession in more than 15 years. House prices are falling more rapidly than they were in the property crash of the late 1980s and early 1990s

It would seem a possible recovery in Britain will not be aided by increased consumer spending in the short term!

Recession in Germany?

Spiegel online writes that the German economy may have shrunk in the second quarter, according to early reports, and that the outlook for industrial production isn’t lively. Germany could slide into recession, and the German economy may have shrunk by around one percent. They also note that:

German factory orders were down by 2.9 percent in June from May, and orders from abroad for German goods plunged by 5.1 percent. Production at German factories rose by 0.2 percent in June — less than expected

Spain in deep trouble

Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain all face severe challenges. In Spain, the imploding domestic housing market has pushed the unemployment rate to 10.7 percent. The number of bankruptcies in the building sector is exploding, and one third of the job losses stems from the construction sector. As well, the housing market is stalling. The inflation is about 5 per cent.

The US

The credit cruch is still being felt, and so is the reversal of the wealth effect and high oil prices. In addition to bad news from the banking sector, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Indy Mac, and so, in the latest sign of the deepening troubles, G.M. recently reported a second-quarter loss of $15.5 billionfollowing a loss of $8.7 billion reported earlier by Ford. Car sales are dropping, especially sales of American cars.

Guardian notes that:

The US mortgage finance empire Freddie Mac yesterday predicted the worst housing slump since the Great Depression as it set aside $2.5bn (£1.28bn) to cover credit liabilities caused by delinquent loans and foreclosures.

And in New York Times, Peter S. Goodman recently wrote (August 1) that “More Arrows Seen Pointing to a Recession”.

Overall

Pretty gloomy still. The most positive piece of news is the slight drop in oil prices. But still serious signals of a slowdown of growth and possibly recession both in Europe and the US.

Biofuels have been hailed as a major solution to the challenge posed by high and rising oil prices. However, lately there have been more and more indications that this may not be the case.

Rising food prices (and rising futures prices on food as well) is one such indication. A rise in demand for food, resulting from among other economic growth in some rising economies, such as China, is another.

Now a World Bank report has been leaked (to the Guardian) that indicates that

biofuels have driven up global food prices by 75 percent, according to the Guardian report, accounting for more than half of the 140 percent jump in price since 2002 of the food examined by the study. The paper claims that the report, completed in April, was not made public in order to avoid embarrassing US President George W. Bush.

This is somewhat at odds with an US analysis recently that came to the conclusion that just 3 percent of the food price increases could be attributed to biofuels. The World Bank numbers seem high, but even so I have more confidence in them.

No doubt we will much more on this issue in the coming month. To me, however, it seems pretty clear that using land that could have been used for food to instead grow biofuels must be wrong. Thus, only to the extent that biofuels can be grown elsewhere, do I think they should be permitted. Also, seems to me, we need new types of plants that are much more effective than the ones currently used.

To me, this is a field that requires much more pondering as well as more research. Far too many politicians around the world have jumped on this train much too fast!

See also: Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis and
Poverty: 260m driven into hunger by push for biofuel

A new study from Harvard University lends considerable support to what I have previously written here about the crisis in the US housing market. The study predicts that

housing woes will continue as the economy wavers from the sharp drop in home building, credit and stock market turmoil, and a slowdown in consumer spending.

The study also adresses the negative wealth effects of the current situation in the housing market:

“Further price declines will not only increase the probability that mortgage defaults end in foreclosure, but also put a tighter squeeze on consumer spending,” the report stated.

As well, the report states that if the economy plunges into a severe recession, housing demand could fall even further. Many factors seem to still point in this direction. There are a number of negative indicators:

American Express experiences late card payments increasing

House prices dropping

Consumer confidence still dropping

The oil price is still rising

And so on and so forth. At the same time, inflation is on the rise, and while the Fed now is expressing strong concerns about this, they have still not really adressed it. My sense is that they will soon have to.

The American airline industry is in trouble. They were already in it, when the oil prices started to rise. And then the rising costs of fuel just made it worse. And since increasing fuel prices coincided with the economic downswing in the US – which in itself meant less demand for travel – things got a lot worse.

But all the principal actors – all the airlines – still work on the assumption that they all have a future in the skies. I doubt if that is the case, but still, that is - naturally - their working assumption.

So now they seem to be in a state of panic. Most of them, at least. And so they are looking for ways to save money, big and small, as well as ways of increasing revenue. Of course.

Panic sometimes results in great ideas. There is nothing like need to make people think and organizations act. However, it is rarely the case that all ideas born of need are great ideas. And this is definitely not the case for the new fees for checking luggage that several of the hardest hit airlines are now introducing.

That, to me, is a ridiculous idea. The reason the airlines introduce it, is that not a single one of them have the guts to raise prices enough to make their operations profitable. And the reason they feel they can’t, of course, is that there is excess capacity. Which means that they fear they will lose passengers if they increase prices. Then the rational, and perhaps also the only viable long-term strategy, is to reduce capacity.

But the airlines are afraid to do that too, because they’re not sure how long the price of fuel is going to stay high, nor are they sure how long the economic downturn in the US is going to last. So they tell themselves that they are in for the long haul, and that it is important to position the companies for the next boom.

However, doing stupid things and making customers even angrier is rarely a great positioning strategy. And regardless of 15 bucks here and there for suitcases (which it will cost the airlines 10 bucks to organize, administer, and collect), as well as create chaos inside the planes, the fact remains that the US airline industry has far too many companies and far too much capacity. And, of course, most customers are quite capable of adding 15 bucks times two to the price of a round trip ticket!

The US airline industry is going to crash. And 15 dollars will not cushion the fall. Rather the opposite.

The price of oil has now reached a new record high (in US dollar): 129.31.

Some experts think that a continued belief in even higher oil prices among some American investment banks and hedge funds is a major factor in driving the oil price higher and higher.

Also, the new record high for oil has been cited as a major reason for the drops in the major European stock markets Tuesday.

msnbc/AP writes that:

The June contract for light, sweet crude traded as high as $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling at $129.07, up $2.02 from Monday’s record high. The imminent expiration of that contract, which ended with the close of Tuesday’s trading, created additional volatility in the market.

They see no reason why oil should not hit 140 dollars a barrel.

See also (for a little fun): The Coming Oil Crash (LOL)
An Overview of Oil Prices from DOE
The Oil Price Conspiracy

PS: For the record - I share the view expressed in the first of these postings - about the oil crash - that oil prices will crash. But not in the very near future, I think. And only when the dollar starts to rise against other currencies, and then as a function of the strengthening of the dollar!

The current Norwegian government is getting more and more attention for their promises, big words and subsequent lack of action. Perhaps they assume that words speak louder than action in today’s media society. However, this may turn out to be a dangerous and wrong assumption.

Bob Geldorf recently visited Norway, to speak at an international conference on trade and peace at the Oslo City Hall. According to Aftenposten, he “praised Norway’s intentions to fight poverty and control global warming, but respectfully suggested that Norway could start by changing some of its own policies at home.

Specifically, Geldorf zeroed in on Norwegian politicians’ tendency to portray the country as a champion of the environment and human rights, at the same time as they consciously block agricultural imports from poor countries and pollute the environment with their oil and gas industry.”

Geldorf is not the first one to note this discrepancy between words and action. I seriously doubt that he well be that last.

The high oil prices may well be with us for a long time to come, if senior analyst Gioavanni Serio in Goldman Sachs is right. In an energy seminar in Oslo he told participants that the oil industry moves in 20-year cycles.

The world is now in a period of sky-high oil prices that will last a long time—probably until 2020, according to the world’s largest investment bank.

The price for American raw oil rose to a record-high USD 112 per barrel this week after new figures revealed a surprising decrease in storage the week before. Brent oil from the North Sea also rose to new highs, selling for USD 109 per barrel.

“In the long-term, oil prices reflect marginal costs to the oil industry,” said Serio at a yearly energy seminar held by Wilhelmsen at Lysaker outside of Oslo. “The oil price and marginal costs stayed low in the 1990s. Now that it has become far more expensive for the oil producers to retrieve oil, the price is going to rise correspondingly,” he predicted.

The Goldman analyst does not think oil demand will increase significantly but he pointed to “bottlenecks everywhere”. He said: “Oil companies are lacking professionals and rig rates have exploded from around USD 100,000 per day in 2002 to USD 500,000 per day this year.”

However, not everyone shares Goldman Sachs’ bullish predictions. Italian oil giant ENI’s CEO Paolo Scaroni said last week he believes oil prices will fall as a result of increased production.

“We expect the oil price to fall to USD 50-60 per barrel, a price that will provide for global growth,” said Scaroni in an interview on Italian TV.

I am frequently surprised by the ability of American media to explain away or minimize the role of domestic factors in the current recession in the US. Washington Post provide the most recent example of this kind of foolishness. Today it featured the following headline:

Exports Not Hurt by Euro’s Strength, Official Says

BRUSSELS, April 15 — Most European exporters are not yet feeling the pain of the strong euro, a European Union official said Tuesday — even as aircraft maker Airbus, which sells its planes in U.S. dollars, called the level “unbearable.”

Now, if the euro was strong, this would be ok. However, if it is the dollar that is weak, then businesses in the EU don’t really have any big problems. Then it is only sales in the US that are affected.

From a business point of view it matters a lot whether it is the dollar that is weak or the euro that is strong - it is only for trade between those two areas that it does not matter which is what. But for all other trade - and an increasing proportion of world trade falls in that category - it matters.

And really, the Euro has strengthened somewhat versus a number of currencies, but the US dollar has weakened by 30-40% against virtually all currencies that count. Therefore it is much more appropriate and correct to speak of a weak dollar than a strong euro!

Competitively speaking, that means raw materials and goods that are imported have become comparatively cheaper for the EU and other countries, while they have become comparatively more expensive for the US.

Thus, the low interest rates in the US and the recession feeds back on the competitive situation of the US in the world economy.

American media continue to focus on the rising price of oil, and how they drive inflation and increase energy costs.

While this is true, it is only true in an indirect sense. It’s not the oil that is extremely expensive - it was much more expensive in 1980, if measured in other currencies - it is the dollar that is weak.

Here’s that chart for the USD versus the Euro for the last 12 months:

Here is the Brent spot price for the same period:

Adjust oil prices for the dollar slip, and there is still a price increase, but it is actually not all that huge.

The dollar is weak because the US interest rate is low - actually negative when adjusted for inflation - and because the US banking system and credit markets are shaky. And the stock marked is in for a rough ride, whether Americans want to believe it or not. So investors, both inside and outside the US, go into oil and commodities.

This, of course, means the causes for the high oil price to a large extent is found in policy failures within the US. There really isn’t all that much cause to blame the Arabs or the rest of the world, certainly not for the current recession in the US, and only to a limited extent for the current oil prices.