from the hip

I have been following the campaigns for the presidential election in the US for a while. While I find much to appreciate and much good, it is also somewhat sad to follow it. The sad part, to my mind, concerns the missing half or so of the American population.

There is much talk about the rich, both from Barack Obama and from John McCain. Their viewpoints differ considerably. But they do talk about the rich.

And both candidates talk about the middle class. A lot. About how the solution to the current crisis in the US resides with the well being of the American middle class. About how the middle class must be strong enough economically to be able to afford to give their children education. And so on and so forth.

But neither of the candidates spends much time discussing the poor in the US. They don’t talk about their numbers. They don’t discuss their living conditions. The houses they loose in foreclosures. They don’t discuss what they will do for them. They don’t even disagree about them - because they simply don’t discuss them.

And this is what I think is sad. Very sad.

I have discussed this with people. The most rational explanation I am able to get is that the poor don’t count in the election. So the candidates don’t bother spending time discussing them. And then, when I hear that, it is easy to think that they probably will not count in the next election either, so there is no reason to do anything for them between elections or talk about them in the next campaign either. I guess.

So, effectively, half or so (we can always fight over the exact percentage, but that is not my point here) of the population in the US don’t count, from a political perspective. They don’t matter, because they hardly ever vote. The don’t get to be visible. They don’t get to be the target of reforms aimed to improve their conditions. Indeed, it is easy to think that to the extent their chances,  as opposed to the chances of the middle class, improves, it is simply a result of a drip down or spillover effect of changes instituted for the benefit of others.

What a terrible waste of human resources this is! What a waste of talent! What a waste of happiness! How sad. For the United States of America.

How long can the United States continue like this in a knowledge and competence economy? Why the concern with energy saving and recycling of resources when such a large proportion of the greatest resource of all is hardly maintained and definitely not used efficiently?

The Danish newspaper Politiken has an article today that is a character analysis of the candidates for the post of Mayor in the great city of London. The next mayor will be either “Red-Ken” Livingstone, the current mayor, or the challenger, Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson is described by Politiken as a popular, conservative party clown with a pronounced upper class accent. Johnson likes to participate in comedy programs on TV, and makes lots of statements that he later has to apologize for. Like the one about the population of Papua New Guinea being cannibals. According to the polls, he seems to be leading the race for the moment.

The other challenger, supported by Elton John, is a homosexual ex-police boss, Brian Paddick. Polls, unfortunately, indicate that he has no chances of winning.

Red-Ken is an admirer of Venezuela’s president Chavez and Cub’s Fidel Castro. He is known, according to Politiken, for having stated that President Bush is the greatest known threat to humankind.

Tony Travis, a professor at the London School of Economics, says that as people in the UK are so concerned with celebrity and personality, Boris Johnson has a good chance of winning.

What an election! Seem to me like the good folks of London will have to exercise their democratic powers by choosing among bad and worse.

Alternatively, if Politiken is wrong, the next mayor of London, whoever he may be, seems to have a slight image problem in Denmark.

There is still considerable uncertainty concerning the results from the election in Zimbabwe. To my knowledge, official resultats have still not been released.

However, the Danish newspaper Politiken cites two prominent members of Mugabe’s ruling party (names withheld), who give the following results:

Tsvangirai’s MDC: 48.3%
Mugabe’s ZANU-PF: 43%

According to Politiken, there will be a new election within three weeks. However, New York Times writes that there are negotiations about Mugabe’s retirement under way:

Negotiations May Lead to Mugabe’s Exit in Zimbabwe

By THE NEW YORK TIMES

HARARE, Zimbabwe — The opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is in talks with advisers to President Robert G. Mugabe of Zimbabwe, amid signs that some of those close to Mr. Mugabe may encourage him to resign, a Western diplomat and a prominent Zimbabwe political analyst said Tuesday. The negotiations about a possible transfer of power away from Mr. Mugabe began after he apparently concluded that a runoff election would be demeaning, a diplomat said.

The Times, BBC-News, and Dagbladet also bring reports about negotiations. This is what Times writes:

Intensive diplomatic efforts were under way tonight to secure a face-saving exit for Robert Mugabe after 28 years as President of Zimbabwe.

His closest cohorts informed him last night that he had failed to win an outright victory in the country’s weekend presidential poll.

Despite tampering with the results from the countrywide elections, the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission was set to announce that the main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, had taken 48 per cent of the vote, against 42 per cent for the 84-year-old incumbent.

So, in conclusion, there is considerable uncertainty, but strong indications that Mugabe has lost. Whether he will retire in a peaceful manner or not is still not clear. According to BBC-News a deal is “close”.

Among the few very certain things in this world, is the fact that Mugabe has been a disaster for Zimbabwe. Fraud, corrupsion and poltical terror have been a fact of live for people in Zimbabwe for many years.

A land rich on resources and fairly well off at the time of independence have been reduced to one of the poorest countries in the world. Its GDP per capita have fallen with more than 80% since independence.

Now there may be a light in the tunnel, despite the fact that the desperate Robert Mugabe recruited dead voters (The Times) to rig the election.

According to The Guardian, the opposition claims that they have won the election in the country:

Zimbabwe’s opposition party claimed an overwhelming victory against President Robert Mugabe in yesterday’s presidential election, saying that the flow of results showed its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, had ‘massacred’ the ruling Zanu-PF party.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) defied a government ban on pre-empting the official announcement of the election results and released the count from polling stations that showed Tsvangirai beating the man who has ruled Zimbabwe for 28 years, even in the president’s home territory of Mashonaland.

‘We’ve won this election,’ said Tendai Biti, the MDC’s secretary-general. ‘The results coming in show that in our traditional strongholds we are massacring them. In Mugabe’s traditional strongholds they are doing very badly. There is no way Mugabe can claim victory unless it is through fraud. He has lost this election.’

The government’s electoral commission has yet to release the counts formally. But the MDC said that declarations posted at polling stations across Zimbabwe last night, and gathered from its agents observing the counts, showed Tsvangirai ahead of Mugabe in every province where results were available. The most dramatic gap was in Mashonaland West, where the MDC candidate had 88 per cent of the vote to the president’s 12 per cent.

However, it is still too early to say. And even if the opposition should win, the likelihood of a peaceful transition of power is probably very, very small. The most likely outcome is that Mugabe will cling to power and a civil war will ensue.

In my opinion, that is.

PS: The election results are not forthcoming. Election observers now fears that this means that Mugabe is yet again doctoring the results. Journalists have not so far been able to ascertain when the results will be made public.
PS2: Read about some of the local election results from The Independent.

Some good readings about the election in Zimbabwe:

The Independent - Mugabe: the writing’s on the wall, Opposition leaders go into hiding as poll result is delayed
New York Times: Zimbabwe Opposition Insists Mugabe Lost
The Guardian: Zimbabwe opposition fears vote-rigging, Secret Mugabe meeting ponders military move or fixed result
Information (Danmark - in Danish): Dødt løb efter valg i Zimbabwe